8 brackets where the #1 and #2-ranked wrestlers are on the same half-bracket. See all of DubStat’s bracket predictions here Back to State Tournament Hub Brackets with the #1 and #2 on the same half: 8 brackets in total amounts to almost 20% of all state brackets. D1 – 132 pounds #2 Marshall Morency knocked…
Category: Analytics
How Accurate were DubStat’s District Predictions? (2024)
2024 OHSAA District Wrestling Predictions – Accuracy Report Last week, we produced district predictions for every weight class in the state of Ohio using DubStat’s Elo rating system. The reports included: You can view the reports using the links below: Division 1Division 2Division 3 The Numbers Let’s dive into the numbers to see how we…
Division 1 District Predictions 2024
2024 OHSAA Division 1 District Wrestling Predictions What’s in the District Prediction Report? How the Bracket Simulation Works Each bracket is simulated 3,000 times using DubStat’s Elo ratings to produce win probabilities for each wrestler. We then count the number of times each wrestler made it to state (place top-4) in those simulations. For example, if a…
Division 2 District Predictions 2024
OHSAA Division 2 District Wrestling predictions What’s in the District Prediction Reports? How the Simulation Works Each bracket is simulated 3,000 times using DubStat’s Elo ratings to produce win probabilities for each wrestler. We then count the number of times each wrestler made it to state (place top-4) in those simulations. For example, if a…
Division 3 District Predictions 2024
OHSAA Division 3 District Wrestling predictions District Prediction Reports We ran thousands of simulations for every D3 District bracket using DubStat’s Elo ratings. View the results in the reports below to see projected state qualifiers and team scores. OHSAA Wrestling Individual and Team Rankings
Is 150-pounds the toughest weight in Ohio?
an analysis of the toughest weight classes, districts, and weight class by district in Ohio high school wrestling With about two months remaining of the 2024 wrestling season, the landscape of talent around the state is starting to take shape. In this article, we will examine where the most talented wrestlers reside by: Weight Class…
2024 Ohio High School Wrestling Preview (D3)
2024 Ohio high school wrestling preview – Division 3 Edition Ohio High School Wrestling Rankings – Division 1 – Division 2 – Division 3 The 2024 Ohio high school wrestling season is weeks away and its shaping up to be an exciting one in division 3. In this article will cover the following topics to examine the landscape of division 3…
What are Elo Ratings and How do they Work?
What are Elo Ratings? Elo ratings are a way to measure the relative skill of players or teams in zero sum games (where each competitor either wins or loses). Elo ratings are a way to rank players or teams mathematically using a fairly simple algorithm. They are historically the most accurate way to rank a…
2023 Most Dominant Wrestlers
OHSAA’s most dominate wrestlers are calculated using available match data from JakesWrestling.com. Wrestlers with a minimum of 15 matches were included. The Most Dominate Wrestler rankings are based on each wrestlers average team points scored per match. Points per match as follows: Division 1 Leaders Three time state champion, Joey Blaze of Perrysburg is out…
2024 Team Projections
Which teams are the early favorites to win next year’s state tournament? Can St. Ed’s break the team scoring record? I attempted to answer these questions by removing seniors from team rosters and projecting the 2024 OHSAA wrestling team scores based on each wrestlers’ end-of-year Elo rating. Incoming freshmen are not included in the projections….
Match Result Statistics from the 2022/23 Ohio Wrestling Season
76,427 matches were recorded in Jakes Wrestling’s database for the 22/23 season. Here’s the breakdown of results. Match Counts Match counts increase as you move from 106 to 138 and then level off. Heavyweight Heavyweight results stood out: 1. Only 16 tech falls all season for all divisions (Jaxon Joy alone had 18 recorded in…
District Disparity – Division 3 Edition
The Rossford and Perry districts lead the way in Division 3 wrestling, with Rossford taking the top spot for team points and number of state placers. The majority of the talent in the Rossford district is coming from the Archbold and Plymouth sectionals, while the Berkshire sectional leads the way for the Perry district. Covington sectional stands out in the Troy district, which is the weakest in terms of team points and state placers, with the Barnesville sectional as the district’s bright spot.
District Disparity – Division 1 Edition
“What is the toughest district?” This is a question wrestling enthusiasts attempt to answer at the close of every State tournament. While imbalances are apparent at the district level, the true disparities manifest at the sectional level – which we will delve deeper into during the following discussion. But first, let’s set the stage by…
Unleashing the Underdogs
A Look Back at the top 11 Surprising Victories of the State Tournament 1,240 matches were contested at the OHSAA State Wrestling tournament. 307 (25%) were considered upsets based on DubStat’s Elo Rankings. However, some were more impressive than others. Below are the top 11 upsets from the tournament: (generated using DubStat’s Wrestler Comparison Tool)…
A Cinderella Story
Magical Title Runs at the OHSAA State Wrestling Tournament Out of the 42 crowned champions, some had to overcome significant hurdles to earn their titles. Below, we highlight four wrestlers who defied the odds to achieve their magical championship runs. What’s particularly impressive is that none of these wrestlers won their district championships. Probability of…