2024 OHSAA State Wrestling Championship Predictions – Accuracy Report
State Prediction Reports
View DubStat’s state prediction reports for each division below:
Summary
DubStat’s State Prediction Reports correctly predicted:
- 60% of state champions
- 68% of state finalists
- 77% of state placers
- 76% of all state match winners
The Numbers
The “Prediction Reports” columns below represent results based on the State Tournament Prediction Reports which you can view at the top of this article. I’ve also included results based on rankings prior to State, prior to Districts, and prior to Sectionals.
Prediction Reports = projected champs/placers from the State Prediction Reports above
Pre-State Rankings = projected champs/placers based on rankings prior to the State Tournament
Pre-Dist Rankings = projects champs/placers based on rankings prior to Districts
Pre-Sect Rankings = projected champs/placers based on rankings prior to Sectionals
Overall, DubStat’s State Prediction Reports correctly picked 60% of the state champions, 68% of the state finalists, and 77% of the state placers.
Interestingly, the pre-District rankings correctly picked more state champions (64%) than the Prediction Reports (60%). However, the Prediction Reports did better at predicting state finalists (68% vs 63%) and state placers (77% vs 74%).
The total state champs predicted did not improve from pre-Sectional rankings to the Prediction Reports (60% vs 60%) while predicted state finalists (68% vs 60%) and predicted state placers (77% vs 70%) did improve.
State Placement – Actual vs Predicted
The graph below shows wrestlers’ actual state placement vs their projected state placement. A positive number means a wrestler placed higher than projected, while a negative number means a wrestler placed lower than projected.
Actual vs Projected State Placements
Wrestlers who finished in the round of 12 were assigned a placement of 10.
Wrestlers who finished in the round of 16 were assigned a placement of 14.
Results
16% of wrestlers placed exactly as they were projected.
34% of wrestlers placed within 1 spot of their projected placement.
53% of wrestlers placed within 2 spot of their projected placement.
70% of wrestlers placed within 3 spot of their projected placement.
Team Scores
St. Edward was the only team champion correctly predicted. Buckeye finished as runner-up in Division 2 and Barnesville finished as runner-up in Division 3.
Actual vs Projected Team Scores
Division 1
St. Edward was 2.5 points away from tying their own D1 scoring record of 229 set in 2007. They wrestled an excellent tournament, sending 8 to the finals (vs. expected 5), and coming away with 4 state champions (matching expected 4) .
Massillon Perry came into the state tournament as the heavy favorites to finish as runner-up. However, they were without projected runner-up Mason Rohr, who did not compete due to an injury suffered prior to the state tournament. Excluding runner-up points of 20, Perry finished as expected with 132.5 points.
With Perry down a man, Perrysburg seized the opportunity to claim their third straight runner-up trophy. They picked up big points with their 3 state champions (vs. expected 2) and 4 state finalists (vs. expected 3).
Wadsworth was the only team to fall outside their 90% confidence range, finishing with 65.5 point (0.5 above their range).
Division 2
There was only 1 team in the top 10 who finished outside of their 90% confidence range. That team just so happened to be 22-time defending state champions, Graham. Although Buckeye finished above their expected team score by 13 points, Graham managed to outdo their expected score by 33.5 which was enough to claim their 23rd straight state championship.
For Graham: Blaine DeMarco (126), Hayden Hughes (138), and Bryce Kohler (165), all finished above their projected placements.
All other top-10 teams fell within their 90% confidence range. St. Francis DeSales had a nice tournament, outscoring their projected score of 80 by 15 points.
Division 3
Projected champion, Barnesville, finished at the low end of their range with 85.5 points while actual champion, Edison, finished with 94 points which was 9 higher than expected.
Two teams (Miami East and Brookville) fell outside their 90% confidence range. Miami East had a wrestler ranked #2 who did not compete at state which explains their deviation. Brookville had three highly ranked wrestlers underperform and fail to place.
State Finals Predictions
DubStat’s Match Predictor Tool was used to predict state finals matchups.
Overall, 74% of the champions were correctly predicted.
Division 1
7 out of 14 (50%) state champions were correctly predicted in division 1.
Division 2
12 out of 14 (86%) state champions were correctly predicted in division 2.
Division 3
12 out of 14 (86%) state champions were correctly predicted in division 3.