2024 OHSAA District Wrestling Predictions – Accuracy Report
Last week, we produced district predictions for every weight class in the state of Ohio using DubStat’s Elo rating system. The reports included:
- Probability of qualifying to state and winning districts for each wrestler
- Projected top-6 place winners in each weight class
- Predicted scores and state qualifiers per team
You can view the reports using the links below:
Division 1
Division 2
Division 3
The Numbers
Let’s dive into the numbers to see how we did.
State Qualifiers
| Correct | Total | Percent | |
| D1 Total | 186 | 224 | 83% |
| D2 Total | 172 | 224 | 77% |
| D3 Total | 183 | 224 | 82% |
| Total | 541 | 672 | 81% |
DubStat correctly predicted 541 out of 672 or 81% of all state qualifiers across all three division. This is 1 qualifier better than our expected value of 540 qualifiers.
(For the math nerds: the expected value is the sum of all predicted qualifiers’ probability of qualifying)
District Champions
| Correct | Total | Percent | |
| D1 Total | 38 | 56 | 68% |
| D2 Total | 37 | 56 | 66% |
| D3 Total | 45 | 56 | 80% |
| Total | 120 | 168 | 71% |
DubStat correctly predicted 120/168 or 71% of all district champions, 9 better than our expected value of 111 champs.
(The expected value is the sum of all predicted champions’ probability of winning)
State Qualifiers by Probability of Qualifying
The above graph shows the actual vs. expected number of state qualifiers by their probability of qualifying to state.
For example, based on the probabilities given before the district tournament was wrestled, we should have expected to see 10 wrestlers qualify to state who had a 0-5% chance of qualifying (far left of graph). The actual number was 12.
By and large, the actual number of qualifiers in each bucket fell in line with the expected values.
Qualifiers who Beat the Odds
State qualifiers who had the lowest probability of qualifying
With 672 total state qualifiers, we should expect to have a few wrestlers make it to state who had less than or equal to a 1% chance of qualifying. We saw 6 wrestlers accomplish this feat plus two more with just over a 1% chance.
Loudon Auchmuty
However, our model gave Loudon Auchmuty of Columbus Grove a 0.0075% chance of making it out of the 190-pound D3 Troy bracket. That’s equivalent to 1 in 13,000!
Auchmuty came into Districts with an 11-8 record after finishing 4th in his sectional. He won his go-to-district match in sudden victory.
After losing his first round match at districts, Loudon won 4 straight matches where he had the following probabilities of winning: 22%, 85%, 4%, and 1%. His go-to-state match was against a returning state qualifier who had won Auchmuty’s sectional the week before.
Congrats to Loudon on his remarkable run and best of luck this weekend at State!
Updated Rankings
Check out DubStat’s latest rankings as we head into the state tournament this weekend.