- DubStat’s prediction accuracy
- District strength analysis
- Weight class strength analysis
- Weight class predictability
How Accurate will DubStat’s District Projections be?
Here’s what we should expect from DubStat’s projections:
- 81% of all state qualifiers correct (3.25 per weight)
- 93% of state qualifiers will come from the projected top 6 (3.75 per weight)
- 7% of state qualifiers will come from wrestlers not projected to place at districts.
- 72% of district champions correct
- 88% of district champions will come from the projected top 2
After the district tournament, we’ll compare these projections to the actual results and see how close we got.
Find district projections for every weight class and district here:
State Tournament Hub
Now to the analytics…
District Strength Analysis
Average Number of Top 16 Wrestlers per Weight Class
Average Number of Top 8 Wrestlers per Weight Class
Average Number of Top 4 Wrestlers per Weight Class
Total Top 16 Wrestlers Projected to Miss State Qualification
Wrestlers Outside of the Top 16 Projected to Qualify for State
Weight Class Strength Analysis
25 Toughest Weights by Average Rank of Top 6
25 Weakest Weights by Average Rank of Top 6
Weight Class Predictability Analysis
Most Predictable Weight Classes
Average probability to qualify of projected top 4 (90%+)
Least Predictable Weight Classes
Average probability to qualify of projected top 4 (<75%)
District Champion Favorites
Weight Class where the projected champ has the highest probability of winning (95%+)
D1 Fairmont-190: Matthew Kowalski (Springboro)
D1 Hoover-165: Landen Johnson (Mass. Perry)
D1 Perrysburg-150: Marcus Blaze (Perrysburg)
D2 Wilmington-215: Michael Boyle (Watterson)
D3 Troy-157: Brogan Tucker (Graham)
Girls Big Walnut-100: Makenna Craft (Jackson)
D1 Fairmont-138: Kane Shawger (St. Xavier)
D1 Fairmont-150: Londen Murphy (Moeller)
D1 Hoover-215: Riley McPherson (Brecksville)
D2 Kenston-132: Blake Bartos (Medina Buckeye)
D3 Independence-113: Xavier Pearson (Trinity)
D3 Rossford-126: Adam Mattin (Delta)
D3 Rossford-165: Braxton Quaintance (Lakota)
D3 Rossford-175: Luke James (Milan Edison)
Girls Big Walnut-115: Lyndyn Gibbs (Washington CH)
Girls Big Walnut-120: Mackenzie Carder (Olentangy Orange)
Girls Findlay-155: Rejan Alhashash (Avon Lake)
D2 Wilmington-150: James Lindsay (Watterson)
Girls Big Walnut-170: Lydia Heinrich (Olentangy Orange)
D1 Perrysburg-175: Ty Miller (St. Edward)
D1 Perrrysburg-215: Aiden Peterson (St. Edward)
D2 Kenston-106: Jarreau Walker (Streetsboro)
D2 Wilmington-144: Mitchell Younger (Watterson)
D2 Wilmington-190: Lincoln Shulaw (DeSales)
Girls Findlay 120: Morgan Leonhardt (Gibsonburg)