DubStat’s Elo Rating system is derived from the original system developed in the 1960’s by Physic Professor, Arpad Elo, in order to rate the skill level of chess players.
However, DubStat’s system has some key adjustments that make it suitable for wrestling.
See What are Elo Ratings and How do they Work? for an introduction into Elo Ratings.
Factors of the Elo Rating System
- Data Source
- Initial Rating
- K-factor
- Scaling factor
- Win Factor (W-Factor)
Data Source
In order for an Elo system to work, there must be a centralized database of match results.
The data used to calculate DubStat’s Elo ratings come from JakeWrestling.com. Jake’s site contains 80-90% of the results throughout Ohio. He does an excellent job of uploading results from Trackwrestling.com, Baumspage.com, his own site, and a few other smaller sites.
Below are the most common situations when results do not make it into Jake’s database:
- Dual meets – most dual meets do not get uploaded anywhere. At best they make it into a local newspaper.
- Tournaments run by hand – results from tournaments that are run by hand often do not get uploaded digitally. When they do, names are generally misspelled and results are not complete.
- Out of state results – Out of state tournaments that do not feature many Ohio teams often do not get uploaded.
If you would like to see the database more complete, you can help by gathering results that are not entered and properly format them to be uploaded.
Email me at [email protected] for more information on how you can help with data completeness.
Initial Rating
A wrestler must have five matches in the database to receive an initial Elo rating.
DubStat’s algorithm calculates what the wrestler’s rating “should have been” given the results of their matches and their opponents Elo rating.
After the initial rating is given, the wrestler’s score will go up or down after each match based on a few factors.
K-factor
The k-factor is the maximum amount of Elo points a wrestler can gain (or lose) at the conclusion of a match.
In DubStat’s system, k-factor is 75 points.
While 75 points is the most a wrestler can gain (or lose), a much smaller number is usually achieved based on a few other factors.
Scaling Factor
The scaling factor determines how likely a wrestler is to win based on the difference between their Elo rating and their opponent’s Elo rating.
For example, the algorithm may calculate that Wrestler A (1700 Elo Rating) has a 90% chance of winning against Wrestler B (1600 Elo rating).
If Wrestler A wins, they would only be eligible to gain 10% of the k-factor, or 7.5 points (10%*75 =7.5). Wrestler B would be eligible to lose 7.5 points.
If Wrestler B wins, they would be eligible to receive 90% of the k-factor, or 67.5 points (90%*75 = 67.5). Wrestler A would be eligible to lose 67.5 points.
However, there is one more factor that impacts the number of Elo points a wrestler gains (or loses) at the conclusion of a match.
W-factor
The w-factor is custom to DubStat’s rating system. This factor accounts for how dominant a wrestler is in a match.
The w-factor determines what percentage of the max points (k-factor) should be available after a win.
Tech Falls and Pins give the highest percentage of points, Majors give out the second highest amount, and Decisions give out the lowest percentage.
An Example
Below is an actual sample from the system that shows how a wrestlers Elo rating can change throughout a season.
| W/L | RESULT | Elo | OppElo | Elo Change |
| W | D 4-3 | 1603 | 1575 | +16 |
| W | F 3:40 | 1619 | 1516 | +5 |
| L | D 5-4 | 1624 | 1536 | (41) |
| L | F 1:01 | 1583 | 1702 | (4) |
| L | D 6-3 | 1579 | 1604 | (18) |
| W | F 0:44 | 1561 | 1440 | +4 |
| W | F 1:44 | 1565 | 1555 | +30 |
| L | M 10-2 | 1595 | 1730 | (3) |
| W | D 7-2 | 1592 | 1597 | +21 |
| W | F 2:01 | 1613 | 1576 | +14 |
| W | T 16-1 | 1627 | 1439 | +1 |
| W | F 1:20 | 1628 | 1527 | +6 |
| W | D 8-7 | 1634 | 1599 | +14 |
| W | D 8-1 | 1649 | 1582 | +10 |
What is a good Elo rating?
An Elo score of 1500 is considered an “average score”. The following table is, in general, a good representation of how Elo ratings compare to achievement levels.
| Elo Rating | Achievement Level |
| 1550 | Varsity |
| 1600 | District Qualifier |
| 1700 | State Qualifier |
| 1750 | State Placer |
| 1900 | State Champion |
| 1950 | Superstar |
Team Dual result at 144 Miami Trace v Washington C.H. January 18th, 2024
W-Landon St.Clair by decision 6-4 over L-Wesley Gibbs
Entire dual was broadcast and uploaded to YouTube via WCHC TV local channel. Link in the Website box below.