Which teams are the early favorites to win next year’s state tournament?
Can St. Ed’s break the team scoring record?
I attempted to answer these questions by removing seniors from team rosters and projecting the 2024 OHSAA wrestling team scores based on each wrestlers’ end-of-year Elo rating.
Incoming freshmen are not included in the projections.
Let’s see what the model is forecasting for next year’s state tournament…
Division 1
It will surprise no one that St. Eds is the favorite to repeat as champions, but they look to absolutely runaway with the title next year.
In fact, they are projecting to beat their own scoring record by 19 points! (They scored 229 points in 2007)
2024 will be a competition for second place. Returning runner-up, Perrysburg is projected to come in at #6 (I know they have Grey Burnett coming in – add another 20-30 points to their total). Wadsworth Is way down at #9 as they look to reload.
Coffman and Perry are the current favorites to finish behind a historic Ed’s team next year.
Returning Wrestlers
(Ranked by Elo)
St. Ed’s will return:
(4) #1 ranked wrestlers (Timar, Brown, J. Miller, Slaper)
(4) #2 ranked wrestlers (Eaton, Sanderfer, Bennett, T. Miller)
(2) #3 ranked wrestlers (Butler, Brown)
and a host of others who will contribute at the state tournament (#4 Obrien, #5 Peterson, #6 Gregory, #7 Waugh)
They may place in all 14 weight classes!
Coffman is currently projected as runner-up, lead by two returning champions (Birden and Ayoub) as well as 6-7 others who could reach the podium (#4 Mitchell, #4 Baumann, #4 Beane, #5 Woodcock, #5 Maloney, #6 Makour)
Massillon Perry is the deepest of the contenders with 9 wrestlers projected to place at state and a few others on the bubble (#1 Fockler, #2 Rohr, #3 Curtis, #3 McBurney, #6 Geckler, #6 Hartshorn, #7 Plotts, #7 Johnson, #7Seibert)
(check full list of D1 Elo ratings here)
Division 2
Graham’s not quite the powerhouse they used to be but they don’t appear to be in danger of losing their stronghold on the division 2 championship just yet. Buckeye, DeSales and Watterson are all nipping at their heals coming into 2024.
Returning Wrestlers
(Ranked by Elo)
Graham returns (6) wrestlers ranked #1 or #2 which should generate enough state team points to put them out front of top competition Buckeye.
#1-ranked: Tucker, Cramblett
#2-ranked: Kohler, Jacks, Hughes, James
Contributors: #7 Mannier, #8 Landis)
However, if there is anyone who can knock off the mighty Falcons next year, it’s Buckeye.
They are loaded with talent and returns (3) #1 ranked wrestlers along with 5-7 others who could contribute team points.
#1-ranked: Limbert, Neitenbach, King
Contributors: #3 Bartos, #4 Badiu, #7 Beckett
DeSales and Watterson aren’t as deep as Graham and Buckeye, but the talent they do have is likely to place top 4 at state and generate big numbers in terms of team points. Look for these two teams to be contenders for years to come.
(check full list of D2 Elo ratings here)
Division 3
Could 2024 be Barnesville’s year or will Legacy be able reload and claim another team title?
Returning Wrestlers
(Ranked by Elo)
Generally, talent isn’t as concentrated among top D3 teams which generates a potential for an exciting team race.
The earl favorites, Barnesville, returns three King boys (#1 Dakota, #2 Ayden, #3 Skyler) and #1 Reese Stephen as their top point scorers along with 1-3 other potential state placers (#4 Huntsman, #10 Milhoan, #12 Ford)
Legacy has a four big dogs in the Campbell brothers (#1 Dillon and #2 Eli), #2 Brayden Brown, and #3 Nathan Attisano.
If they all place top three, they could score enough team points to overtake Barnesville and remain atop the D3 podium.
Edison’s studs (#1 Hermes, #2 Horvath, #3 Medina) will all likely be top three next year but without some help from other contributors it won’t be enough to challenge for a championship.
(check full list of D3 Elo ratings here)
Incoming Talent
Which freshmen/transfers could change the outlook of the 2024 team race?
Let me know in the comments or connect with me on social media:
Twitter: @dubstatwrestle
Facebook: DubStat Wrestling
email: DubStatWrestle@gmail.com